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NFL Week 5 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips

The Week 5 NFL schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.

Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Analytics writer Seth Walder picks out each matchup’s biggest X factor, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody hands out helpful fantasy football intel. Finally, Walder and Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 5 slate, including Josh Allen vs. Trevor Lawrence in London, a big Cowboys-Niners showdown and Patrick Mahomes taking on the Vikings. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Packers and the Raiders on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

Jump to a matchup:
JAX-BUF | HOU-ATL | CAR-DET
TEN-IND | NYG-MIA | NO-NE
BAL-PIT | PHI-LAR | CIN-ARI
NYJ-DEN | KC-MIN | DAL-SF
GB-LV

Thursday: CHI 40, WSH 20
Bye: CLE, LAC, SEA, TB

9:30 a.m. ET | NFL Network | Spread: BUF -5.5 (48.5)

Storyline to watch: While it’s a Bills “home” game, the Jaguars are on the second of back-to-back weeks in London, which means Jacksonville has the time zone experience advantage. But the Jaguars will be challenged to slow down a Bills offense that’s averaging 5.9 yards per play (fourth) while the Jaguars’ defense is allowing 5.4 yards per play (22nd). — Alaina Getzenberg

Bold prediction: QB Josh Allen will score a touchdown, and so will … LB Josh Allen. Not a big deal if Buffalo’s Allen runs for a TD — he has 40 over his career, including two this year — but Jacksonville’s Allen has just one TD in his five-year career: a 37-yard fumble return that gave the Jaguars a 20-16 victory over Tennessee in Week 18 last season. — Mike DiRocco

Stat to know: QB Allen had four touchdown passes last week, the 10th such game in his career. He is tied with Jim Kelly for the most in Bills franchise history. The last quarterback to throw four TD passes in consecutive games was Joe Burrow in Weeks 16-17 in 2021.

Matchup X factor: Jaguars cornerbacks Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams. Jacksonville has a strong run defense, and if these two corners — who both have allowed lower than average yards per coverage snap this season, according to NFL Next Gen Stats — can slow down the Bills’ passing attack, the Jaguars have a chance. — Walder

Injuries: Jaguars | Bills

What to know for fantasy: The Jaguars’ defense allows the second-most fantasy points to tight ends. Rookie TE Dalton Kincaid didn’t have a great game against the Dolphins, but he did catch four of five targets for 27 yards. He ran more routes and was more involved in the passing game than Dawson Knox. The stage is set for Kincaid to have a breakout performance. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Doug Pederson is 32-23 against the spread (ATS) in his career as an underdog, including playoffs. He is 9-6 ATS as an underdog to the Bills. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Bills 31, Jaguars 24
Walder’s pick: Bills 33, Jaguars 20
FPI prediction: BUF, 79.5% (by an average of 11.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jaguars’ offense takes baby steps in London … Bills’ offense chasing history behind Allen, Diggs … Who has to step up for Bills after White’s Achilles tear?


1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: ATL -1.5 (41.5)

Storyline to watch: Atlanta’s home/road splits with Desmond Ridder at quarterback are stark — 4-0 and completing 67.9% of his passes with four touchdowns and one interception at home, 0-4 with a 58.6% completion rate, 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions on the road. That’ll be an interesting thing to watch since the Texans have allowed quarterbacks to complete passes at a high clip (71.9%) when they’re on the road, although they’ve given up only one passing touchdown. — Michael Rothstein

Bold prediction: The Falcons’ passing attack will be held to under 110 yards and will turn the ball over multiple times. The Texans are one of six teams with more interceptions (3) than passing touchdowns allowed (2) and pressure quarterbacks on 44% of their dropbacks, the third-highest rate. Ridder has been sacked 16 times, fourth most in the NFL, and the Falcons average the fewest passing yards per game (156). — DJ Bien-Aime

Stat to know: Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud has thrown zero interceptions in his first 151 passing attempts, the third-most passing attempts without an interception to begin a career in NFL history (Dak Prescott, 176, and Tua Tagovailoa, 152). Stroud will face Jessie Bates III, who has collected three interceptions this season (tied for the most in the NFL).

Matchup X factor: Ridder. He has just a 29 QBR this season, and that’s nowhere near good enough to get the Atlanta offense going. The Falcons need more from him if they are going to beat a frisky Texans squad. — Walder

Injuries: Texans | Falcons

What to know for fantasy: The Texans’ defense has done an excellent job containing wide receivers — allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. They do, however, give up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs, so expect the Falcons to double down on the running game. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Falcons are 0-3 ATS in their past three games. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Texans 24, Falcons 23
Walder’s pick: Texans 24, Falcons 17
FPI prediction: ATL, 52.5% (by an average of 0.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Stroud continues to rewrite history in win over Steelers … Smith sticking with Ridder as QB1 … Green (knee) out indefinitely … Ridder tosses 2 INTs, says he did ‘terrible job’

play

0:48

Should fantasy managers go after C.J. Stroud?

Eric Moody breaks down why C.J. Stroud will continue to be mentioned as a top waiver wire pickup.


1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: DET -10 (44)

Storyline to watch: The Panthers are still looking for their first win of the season but will have to slow down a potent Lions offense to get it. Detroit’s offense has scored at least 20 points in 13 straight games — which is tied for the longest streak in franchise history (1995) — and could get another boost with the return of wide receiver Jameson Williams, whose suspension for violating the NFL’s gambling policy was reduced last week. Carolina’s defense has allowed at least 20 points in every game this season. — Eric Woodyard

Bold prediction: Detroit QB Jared Goff will pass for a season-high 350 yards and four touchdowns. The Panthers will tighten up their porous run defense. However, they won’t be able to pressure Goff, who is going against a secondary that’s missing two starters (CB Jaycee Horn, S Xavier Woods) and could be down a third if CB Donte Jackson (shoulder) doesn’t play. — David Newton

Stat to know: Lions tight end Sam LaPorta has 22 receptions this season, third among rookies and third among tight ends. With three receptions on Sunday, he will be the third tight end with 25 receptions in the first five games of his career since 1950, joining Keith Jackson (29 in 1988) and Jordan Reed (26 in 2013).

Matchup X factor: Panthers receivers DJ Chark Jr., Jonathan Mingo and Terrace Marshall Jr. Carolina simply needs more out of its wideouts, aside from Adam Thielen, to support slow-starting QB Bryce Young. Mingo and Marshall are in the bottom five in the Receiver Tracking Metrics’ overall score among wide receivers (Chark hasn’t played enough to qualify). — Walder

Injuries: Panthers | Lions

What to know for fantasy: No team this season has eclipsed 90 yards rushing against Detroit, which has held opponents to 243 total rushing yards. The Panthers could rely heavily on Hayden Hurst, Thielen and Chark on Sunday. Against tight ends, the Lions’ defense gives up the fourth-most fantasy points. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Panthers coach Frank Reich is 5-2-1 ATS in his career as at least a 6-point underdog. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Lions 30, Panthers 14
Walder’s pick: Lions 27, Panthers 17
FPI prediction: DET, 77.1% (by an average of 10.2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Why Panthers aren’t panicking about Young, offense … Reinstated from gambling suspension, is Williams finally ready to launch? … At 0-4, Panthers’ offense, Young are failing each other … Campbell sets realistic expectations for Williams


1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: TEN -2 (43)

Storyline to watch: The Titans have won five straight meetings with the Colts and six of the past seven between the clubs. The Colts’ last win in the series came on Nov. 12, 2020, with Philip Rivers at QB. Additionally, the Colts have now lost seven consecutive games at home, their last win at Lucas Oil Stadium coming on Oct. 16, 2022, against the Jaguars. — Stephen Holder

Bold prediction: WR DeAndre Hopkins will record his first 100-yard receiving game for the Titans. Hopkins’ 65 yards against the Saints in Week 1 has been his best outing, but the Colts’ pass defense has allowed 263.8 yards per game through four games this season. Indianapolis will be without starting CB Dallis Flowers, so Hopkins will have a prime opportunity to take advantage of the matchup against a reserve corner on one side and rookie JuJu Brents on the other. But he’ll face a bigger challenge in the slot against Kenny Moore II. — Turron Davenport

Stat to know: The Titans have scored fewer than 30 points in 22 straight games, the longest active streak in NFL and tied for longest streak in franchise history (22 straight in 1966-67).

Matchup X factor: Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. He’s a true X factor in the sense that we don’t know what his role will be Sunday, but he can charge up the Colts’ ground game if he plays a significant amount and is the 2021 version of himself. — Walder

Injuries: Titans | Colts

What to know for fantasy: The Titans’ defense has allowed wide receivers the ninth-most fantasy points per game this season. Michael Pittman Jr. has averaged 9.8 targets and 14.0 fantasy points per game in six career games against Tennessee. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Titans have covered five straight meetings. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Colts 24, Titans 21
Walder’s pick: Colts 20, Titans 16
FPI prediction: TEN, 55.6% (by an average of 2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Henry throws 4th career touchdown pass in Titans’ win … Richardson’s poise is keeping Colts in games


1 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: MIA -11 (48.5)

Storyline to watch: The Giants rank dead last in rate of pass attempts with a sack allowed at 17.2%. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have generated sacks on just 6.7% of opponents’ dropbacks. Dolphins players and coaches have publicly stated that Sunday is not a “get right” game, but Miami’s defense has an opportunity to right the ship against a reeling Giants offensive line. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

Bold prediction: The Dolphins’ high-flying offense will never take off against the Giants and will be held to under 24 points. New York played its best defensive game Monday night and is sixth in the NFL with a 51.9% pass rush win rate. It will have some success creating havoc against a Miami offensive line that will be missing left tackle Terron Armstead. — Jordan Raanan

Stat to know: Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa ranks first in yards per attempt on throws with motion, on quick throws under 2.5 seconds and on passes between the numbers. The Giants’ defense ranks 24th or worse in all of those areas this season.

Matchup X factor: Dolphins tackle Kendall Lamm. Lamm has filled in for the injured Armstead admirably with a 96% pass block win rate. Miami needs him to keep it up to keep Tagovailoa upright. — Walder

Injuries: Giants | Dolphins

What to know for fantasy: The Giants’ opponents have rushed for the eighth-most yards per game. The Dolphins lead the league with 176.8 rushing yards per game. It’s again a good week to start a Miami running back. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Giants are 0-4 ATS this season. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Dolphins 42, Giants 17
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 35, Giants 24
FPI prediction: MIA, 87% (by an average of 15.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Giants need to do ‘better job’ of getting Waller involved … Hill in the chase for Calvin Johnson’s receiving record … Neal apologizes for lashing out at booing fans

play

1:04

Ryan Clark: Dolphins have most explosive offense since ‘The Greatest Show on Turf’

Ryan Clark raves about Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins’ offense after Miami put up 70 points on Denver.


1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: NE -1 (39)

Storyline to watch: The Patriots rank 30th in scoring average (13.8) and the Saints (15.5) are tied for 25th. One major issue for the Patriots has been their turnover differential (minus-5), which ranks 27th in the NFL. One major issue for the Saints has been their red zone offense, which ranks last in the NFL with just four TDs in 12 trips. — Mike Reiss

Bold prediction: The Saints will force two turnovers against the Patriots. While New Orleans’ offense has struggled, the defense has been able to capitalize multiple times, getting an interception in three of four games and forcing a fumble in the one game without a pick. Patriots QB Mac Jones has thrown four interceptions this season, and the Saints are poised to get C Paulson Adebo back from injury, which could mean a prime opportunity for them. — Katherine Terrell

Stat to know: The Patriots have the worst pass block win rate in the NFL (39.7%). And Jones is struggling throwing downfield — he’s 0-12 on passes of 25-plus yards.

Matchup X factor: Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson. Which Jackson will New England get: the player who was a standout for the Patriots for years or the one who was a liability for the Chargers? The variance is high here and could matter quite a bit, given the Patriots’ banged-up secondary. — Walder

Injuries: Saints | Patriots

What to know for fantasy: The Saints’ defensive front allows only 103.3 rushing yards per game. There is a good chance that New England’s running game will get back on track sooner than later, but it is unlikely to happen against the Saints. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Saints coach Dennis Allen is 21-35-1 ATS in his career (.375). Out of coaches with at least 50 games in the Super Bowl era, he has the worst cover percentage. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Patriots 17, Saints 14
Walder’s pick: Patriots 23, Saints 20
FPI prediction: NE, 53.8% (by an average of 1.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Saints looking to rectify scoring woes … Why it’s no surprise Belichick traded for Jackson … Saints leaned heavily on Kamara in his season debut … O’Brien downplays Jones’ struggles as ‘uncharacteristic’


1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BAL -4 (38)

Storyline to watch: Despite sustaining a bone bruise to his left knee against the Texans, Steelers QB Kenny Pickett says he’ll be ready to play Sunday. Pickett hasn’t had a great start to the season, with a 29.3 QBR through four games, ranking 29th. But in last year’s Week 17 win against the Ravens, he recorded an 82.5 QBR — his highest of the season. Bouncing back against the Ravens’ defense, though, is a tall task. The Ravens have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just 61% of passes and they’ve recorded 15 sacks, second most in the NFL. — Brooke Pryor

Bold prediction: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will toss four touchdown passes for the first time since September 2022. The Steelers are the only team that Jackson has thrown more interceptions (6) than touchdown passes (4) against in his six-year career. But Pittsburgh has allowed eight touchdown passes this season, which is the fourth most in the league. — Jamison Hensley

Stat to know: Jackson has completed 74.3% of his passes this season, the second-best percentage in the NFL. He could become the first starting QB to complete 70% of his passes in each of his team’s first five games since Derek Carr in 2020.

Matchup X factor: Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers. The Receiver Tracking Metrics make Flowers look like a hit so far. His 77 Open Score ranks eighth among wide receivers in 2023. That’s a big help to the Ravens’ offense. — Walder

Injuries: Ravens | Steelers

What to know for fantasy: The Steelers’ defense has allowed some superb performances to No. 1 receivers. Davante Adams, Nico Collins, Brandon Aiyuk and Amari Cooper averaged 31.7 fantasy points against Pittsburgh. Flowers leads the Ravens with 29 targets. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Steelers are 51-29-3 ATS as underdogs under Mike Tomlin (.637), the best record in the NFL in that span. Tomlin is 43-40 outright as an underdog. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Ravens 21, Steelers 17
Walder’s pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 10
FPI prediction: BAL, 71.8% (by an average of 8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Why Jackson and Ravens top NFL in red zone … Pickett (knee) says he expects to play Sunday … Forget QB, the Steelers must figure out how to run the ball


4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: PHI -4.5 (50.5)

Storyline to watch: The Eagles have gone three straight games with 400 or more yards and have an NFL-high 13 games with at least 400 yards since the start of 2022. The Rams have not allowed more than 400 yards in a game this season and are allowing an average of 295.8 yards per game, which ranks ninth in the NFL. — Sarah Barshop

Bold prediction: Rams QB Matthew Stafford will throw three touchdown passes, doubling his season total. The Eagles have yielded nine touchdowns through the air this season, third worst behind only the Broncos (13) and Bears (10). Stafford has a chance to light it up, especially if receiver Cooper Kupp (hamstring) returns to the lineup as hoped. — Tim McManus

Stat to know: Rams rookie WR Puka Nacua has 39 receptions for 501 yards this season (both are the most through four career games in NFL history). He needs one reception and 43 receiving yards for the most through five career games.

Matchup X factor: Kupp. It remains to be seen if and how much he’ll play, but if he does, this will be our first window into the Kupp and Nacua offense. Given Nacua’s breakout and Kupp’s return, the Rams’ offense looks much more dangerous than we thought before the season. — Walder

Injuries: Eagles | Rams

What to know for fantasy: The Eagles’ secondary has struggled this season, allowing the sixth-most passing yards per game. Find a way to insert the Rams’ pass-catchers into your fantasy lineups. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: This is the 25th consecutive start in the regular season Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is favored in. Hurts is 23-2 outright and 13-10-2 ATS in his career as a favorite (22-2, 12-10-2 ATS during streak). Read more.

Moody’s pick: Eagles 34, Rams 31
Walder’s pick: Eagles 30, Rams 23
FPI prediction: PHI, 55.9% (by an average of 2.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Carter putting together early DROY candidacy? … Nacua chasing Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving record

play

0:37

Why Erin Dolan expects a lot of pass attempts from Matthew Stafford

Erin Dolan says her best bet is Matthew Stafford to throw over 38.5 pass attempts this upcoming week against the Eagles.


4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | Spread: CIN -3 (44.5)

Storyline to watch: With the exception of last week against 49ers QB Brock Purdy, the Cardinals have been quite good against quarterbacks in first halves this season, holding Sam Howell, Daniel Jones and Dak Prescott to two touchdowns and two interceptions combined while sacking all three eight total times. Arizona will try to keep it going against Joe Burrow, who has gotten off to poor starts all season and has been sacked eight times. — Josh Weinfuss

Bold prediction: The Cardinals will rush for 175 yards. Cincinnati is 31st in rush defense (giving up an average of 157.0 yards per game), and Arizona is second in rushing yards per attempt (5.3). Combine those factors, and this could be a day for Arizona to make its presence felt on the ground. — Ben Baby

Stat to know: Arizona QB Joshua Dobbs has thrown four touchdown passes and no interceptions this season. No Cardinals player has ever had five passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in his first five starts with the team since starters were first tracked in 1950.

Matchup X factor: Bengals guards Alex Cappa and Cordell Volson. They rank 65th and 67th out of 67 qualifying guards in pass block win rate. Burrow is clearly not at 100% and needs better protection if he’s going to get back on track. — Walder

Injuries: Bengals | Cardinals

What to know for fantasy: The Bengals’ defense has allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs. Derrick Henry scored 24.4 fantasy points against Cincinnati’s defense last week. The Bengals will now face James Conner. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Burrow is 27-18-1 ATS in his career but is 0-3-1 ATS this season. He has failed to cover five straight regular-season games. Prior to this current streak, he had never gone longer than two straight games without a cover. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Cardinals 24, Bengals 20
Walder’s pick: Bengals 23, Cardinals 17
FPI prediction: CIN, 64.3% (by an average of 5.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Higgins may try to play with broken ribs … Dobbs’ legs give Cardinals’ offense a different dynamic … Bengals need win vs. Cardinals for morale … Should, could and would the Cardinals move on from Murray?


4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: DEN -2 (43.5)

Storyline to watch: Jets RB Breece Hall will be up against the league’s worst run defense. The Broncos are last, or near last, in every major statistical category on defense. Their run defense is allowing 176 yards rushing per game, while the Jets have averaged 95.5 rush yards through four games. — Jeff Legwold

Bold prediction: Hall will score two touchdowns for his first trips to the end zone since Oct. 23, 2022, in Denver. That day, he scored on a 62-yard run but was done for the season a short time after when he tore an ACL. Hall, who no longer has playing-time limitations, should have plenty of opportunities against Denver’s inviting run defense. — Rich Cimini

Stat to know: The Jets rank last in third-down conversion percentage (27%) on offense this season, averaging the fewest plays per drive (4.7) in the NFL.

Matchup X factor: Jets quarterback Zach Wilson. The player we saw in the second half against the Chiefs looked entirely different from, frankly, the rest of Wilson’s career. Will he keep it up? I’m skeptical because the sample of him playing poorly is so much larger. But we’ll see. Fortunately for Wilson, the Broncos’ defense is a mess. — Walder

Injuries: Jets | Broncos

What to know for fantasy: Even though the Jets’ secondary is formidable, the Broncos have the best chance of attacking the defense with their running backs. The New York defense has allowed opponents to rush for the fifth-most yards per game. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Broncos games have gone over the total in three straight and eight of the past nine games dating back to last season. Prior to that stretch, 11 of the Broncos’ first 12 games last season went under. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Jets 21, Broncos 17
Walder’s pick: Jets 23, Broncos 20
FPI prediction: NYJ, 54.6% (by an average of 1.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Hall heading to Denver without ‘pitch count’ … Gregory’s release speaks to larger problems on defense … Hackett returns to Denver with something to prove … Broncos have firepower with rookies Mims, McLaughlin


4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: KC -4 (52.5)

Storyline to watch: QB Patrick Mahomes has faced — and defeated — every opposing NFL team except the Vikings, who have been the NFL’s most blitz-heavy team this season with a 55% rate. But will they dare use it against Mahomes, who, since the start of the 2020 season, has the NFL’s best QBR (89.0) against the blitz? — Kevin Seifert

Bold prediction: Mahomes will throw for 300 yards and won’t have an interception. This type of game used to be a staple for him, but not this year. He has had only one 300-yard game and one without throwing a pick. But the Vikings are 21st in opponent QBR and yards allowed and have just one interception. — Adam Teicher

Stat to know: Vikings QB Kirk Cousins has 11 passing touchdowns this season, the most in the NFL. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in every game this season, the second-longest streak by a Vikings player to start the season since the 1970 merger (Tommy Kramer, six straight in 1981).

Matchup X factor: Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison. Shut out on just a single target in last week’s game, Addison needs to be a capable threat if the Vikings are going to keep up with the Chiefs’ offense. — Walder

Injuries: Chiefs | Vikings

What to know for fantasy: Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco has had the fourth-highest success rate (46%) among running backs since entering the league in 2022, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. His ability to create yards after contact and force missed tackles is also impressive. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games. Read more.

Moody’s pick: Chiefs 34, Vikings 23
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 34, Vikings 28
FPI prediction: KC, 67.6% (by an average of 6.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Mahomes takes blame for Chiefs’ passing-game problems … Can Jefferson catch Calvin Johnson?


8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: SF -4 (45)

Storyline to watch: It’s hard to find a Week 5 game more enticing than this, as these two historically successful franchises renew their longstanding rivalry. In a game where turnovers always matter, they take on greater importance when two talented heavyweights clash. Dallas leads the league with 10 takeaways, while the Niners have just one giveaway on the season, tied with Dallas and Seattle for the fewest in the NFL. San Francisco beat Dallas in the divisional round last season in part because it was plus-1 in turnover margin. It stands to reason the outcome in this one will ride heavily again on which side takes better care of the ball. — Nick Wagoner

Bold prediction: Niners QB Brock Purdy will have a pass intercepted. He has not had a pass picked off in his past five regular-season appearances. He was not intercepted in the win against Dallas in the divisional round, either. And he is coming off a game in which he had just one incompletion. So why will the Cowboys have a pick? That’s what they do. CB DaRon Bland is coming off a game with two interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown. The Cowboys have seven interceptions on the season — only Buffalo has more (eight). At some point, Purdy has to throw one to the other team. — Todd Archer

Stat to know: Purdy has torched man coverage, ranking in the top three in QBR, yards per attempt and touchdown-to-interception ratio since entering the NFL last season. He’ll face a Cowboys defense that has played man coverage at the highest rate in the NFL since the start of last season.

Matchup X factor: Cowboys linebacker Leighton Vander Esch. Niners coach Kyle Shanahan is notorious for targeting opposing linebackers with his offense. Dallas will need Vander Esch to be on his game. Good news for the Cowboys: He has allowed just 0.2 yards per coverage snap this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which is excellent. — Walder

Injuries: Cowboys | 49ers

What to know for fantasy: This season, the 49ers are allowing only 3.9 yards per rushing attempt. This might not be RB Tony Pollard’s breakout game. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 26-12 ATS in the past three seasons, tied with the Lions for the best record in that span. They are 13-6 ATS on the road in that span, tied with the Bengals and Cardinals for the best record. Read more.

Moody’s pick: 49ers 27, Cowboys 20
Walder’s pick: 49ers 26, Cowboys 21
FPI prediction: SF, 55% (by an average of 1.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: What Cowboys saw in Lance and what’s next for the former 49ers QB … 49ers-Cowboys rivalry is undergoing a renaissance … Playoff losses to 49ers have Cowboys motivated ahead of Week 5 tilt … Forget regression, it seems like Purdy is actually getting better

play

1:14

Why Cowboys’ Week 5 game vs. the 49ers is a ‘must-win’

Marcus Spears explains that the Cowboys need to beat the 49ers as a confidence boost after dropping two straight playoff games to San Francisco.


Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: GB -1 (44.5)

Storyline to watch: We have a getting-more-frustrated-by-the-loss Davante Adams vs. his former team. The Raiders All-Pro receiver said it would be “weird” to look across the field during warmups and see those familiar gold and green helmets with the oversized “G” on them after spending his first eight seasons with the Packers. Now in his second year with Las Vegas, Adams needs one TD catch to surpass Antonio Brown (31) and Jimmy Graham (31) for the fourth-most TD receptions in prime-time games in NFL history, trailing Hall of Famers Jerry Rice (46), Randy Moss (44) and Terrell Owens (34). — Paul Gutierrez

Bold prediction: Green Bay WR Romeo Doubs will have a better stat line than Adams — if Adams plays — on Monday night. Doubs has been compared to him by some in the Packers organization, and here’s his chance to show it’s a worthy comparison. Doubs’ three touchdown catches are the most by a Packers receiver in the team’s first four games of a season since Adams in 2018. Doubs will add to that. — Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: Packers QB Jordan Love has thrown at least one passing touchdown in all five of his career starts. He is the only Packer to throw a touchdown in each of his first five starts since 1950.

Matchup X factor: Raiders pass-rushers outside of Maxx Crosby. Las Vegas is getting nothing from that group. Bilal Nichols, Adam Butler, Tyree Wilson, John Jenkins and Jerry Tillery all have a 6% pass rush win rate or worse. The Raiders’ defense needs more. — Walder

Injuries: Packers | Raiders

What to know for fantasy: The Packers’ running game is nonexistent this season. Green Bay ranks 30th with 74.5 rushing yards per game. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Raiders are 0-3 ATS in their past three games. Josh McDaniels is 16-27 ATS in his past 43 games as a head coach (started 6-0 ATS). Read more.

Moody’s pick: Packers 23, Raiders 20
Walder’s pick: Raiders 19, Packers 16
FPI prediction: GB, 54.7% (by an average of 1.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Why Packers have fallen behind Lions in NFC North — for now … Jacobs, Raiders have struggled running the ball, but is a breakthrough coming? … Future unclear for Bakhtiari after 4th surgery … Jacobs says frustration mounting for ‘undisciplined’ Raiders


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